* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/04/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 59 62 65 69 70 70 66 64 61 45 26 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 59 62 65 69 70 70 66 64 61 45 26 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 54 58 60 62 65 67 68 63 57 51 46 40 37 36 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 18 14 12 25 38 47 54 57 63 65 65 67 70 64 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 2 0 0 -5 0 2 -2 1 -6 -10 -5 0 -5 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 339 340 340 334 301 261 246 239 241 232 238 249 254 259 262 258 256 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.7 27.9 27.3 27.0 26.4 24.8 21.4 17.4 15.0 16.4 15.2 14.4 14.8 16.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 156 156 149 138 130 128 121 107 88 76 71 73 71 70 71 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 146 144 136 125 116 113 106 95 79 71 67 68 67 67 67 68 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -54.7 -54.8 -54.3 -53.5 -52.6 -51.1 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -0.4 0.4 1.2 2.0 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 9 7 6 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 56 55 57 62 62 61 54 57 59 65 68 66 65 64 67 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 12 14 16 19 21 26 31 29 25 23 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR -88 -95 -67 -41 -51 -34 2 43 80 106 118 112 134 192 161 134 155 200 MB DIV 71 64 54 59 64 36 68 93 101 88 105 51 25 11 4 18 13 700-850 TADV 2 10 18 12 11 22 9 6 16 23 36 12 -48 -50 -36 -32 -10 LAND (KM) 431 573 640 690 551 408 552 481 388 268 162 507 881 1270 1397 1009 641 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 25.7 27.3 29.0 30.6 33.9 36.7 39.2 41.7 44.4 46.8 48.7 49.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.3 73.6 73.5 73.3 71.8 68.8 64.8 60.4 55.7 50.9 46.1 41.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 17 17 18 19 21 22 21 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 49 57 29 23 12 11 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 15 CX,CY: -5/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -7. -14. -21. -30. -38. -47. -59. -70. -77. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 10. 12. 18. 26. 21. 14. 11. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 15. 19. 20. 20. 16. 14. 11. -5. -24. -38. -51. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 24.1 73.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.42 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.33 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 321.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.56 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.60 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.45 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 16.2% 10.6% 7.7% 4.3% 8.6% 8.9% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 12.7% 7.3% 9.8% 2.6% 6.9% 2.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 5.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 9.7% 6.0% 5.8% 2.3% 5.2% 3.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 59 62 65 69 70 70 66 64 61 45 26 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 52 55 58 61 65 66 66 62 60 57 41 22 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 52 55 59 60 60 56 54 51 35 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 46 50 51 51 47 45 42 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT