* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/03/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 44 47 50 56 64 70 71 68 67 62 49 26 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 44 47 50 56 64 70 71 68 67 62 49 26 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 44 46 50 56 61 62 59 56 49 41 33 28 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 9 12 13 12 20 32 48 52 52 62 72 77 87 82 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -3 -2 -2 0 -2 1 -1 0 2 1 0 -4 -10 -5 1 SHEAR DIR 322 335 328 318 318 293 249 244 237 235 250 261 270 283 288 294 275 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.1 27.9 27.2 27.1 26.3 25.1 23.7 18.7 16.9 18.8 16.9 17.6 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 154 157 155 138 129 129 120 110 100 79 75 79 76 77 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 142 144 146 143 124 116 113 105 96 88 73 71 73 71 72 73 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -53.5 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 10 8 6 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 58 60 58 60 63 62 60 66 69 69 64 62 55 45 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 16 18 20 24 27 26 20 16 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR -67 -86 -80 -83 -62 -41 -23 0 43 75 90 95 47 29 71 75 22 200 MB DIV 24 41 72 62 58 88 41 56 66 77 69 64 27 -10 -24 -29 -25 700-850 TADV 3 6 5 11 21 21 27 14 2 17 20 39 42 10 -4 -34 -42 LAND (KM) 185 315 401 544 561 552 445 595 512 420 391 268 626 1064 1538 1204 794 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.9 24.2 25.7 27.2 30.4 33.4 36.3 38.9 41.3 43.3 45.1 46.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.1 73.0 73.8 74.1 74.4 73.7 71.7 68.7 65.1 60.7 55.8 50.5 44.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 15 15 16 18 19 20 21 21 21 21 21 22 23 22 HEAT CONTENT 58 47 55 64 37 12 6 16 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 19 CX,CY: -14/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 15. 13. 11. 8. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -4. -11. -19. -28. -39. -54. -67. -78. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 15. 19. 17. 8. 1. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 24. 30. 31. 28. 27. 22. 9. -14. -33. -50. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.5 72.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.51 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.36 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.38 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.05 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.64 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.40 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.56 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.7% 9.6% 6.9% 3.8% 8.8% 10.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 11.6% 6.9% 5.1% 1.5% 7.8% 5.1% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 8.8% 5.5% 4.0% 1.8% 5.5% 5.3% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 44 47 50 56 64 70 71 68 67 62 49 26 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 48 54 62 68 69 66 65 60 47 24 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 42 48 56 62 63 60 59 54 41 18 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 39 47 53 54 51 50 45 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT