* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/03/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 96 95 93 87 81 75 69 63 59 53 51 51 52 53 53 V (KT) LAND 95 96 96 95 93 87 81 75 69 63 59 53 51 51 52 53 53 V (KT) LGEM 95 96 95 92 88 81 75 69 61 54 49 46 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 8 4 1 2 7 8 13 7 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 3 1 -3 0 4 1 -3 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 47 63 55 83 182 222 212 228 206 179 171 192 185 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.9 26.7 26.3 26.6 26.3 26.3 25.7 25.9 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 133 131 132 130 126 129 127 128 122 124 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 59 59 59 61 55 50 44 41 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 21 18 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -18 -15 -12 -6 -1 31 60 81 92 79 57 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 24 6 6 25 43 47 10 8 -28 -12 -10 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -6 -7 -4 0 1 6 10 13 12 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2199 2272 2313 2212 2110 1942 1774 1599 1378 1112 813 485 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.8 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.4 132.4 133.4 134.4 135.3 136.9 138.5 140.2 142.3 144.8 147.6 150.7 153.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 8 8 8 9 11 13 15 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 7 3 3 4 4 2 3 1 1 0 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -20. -25. -30. -33. -36. -37. -39. -40. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -2. -8. -14. -20. -26. -32. -36. -41. -44. -44. -43. -42. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 15.2 131.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/03/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.08 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.64 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.27 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 490.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.31 -1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.40 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.87 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.55 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 23.4% 18.2% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 9.5% 5.3% 3.9% 1.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.2% 11.0% 7.8% 5.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/03/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##