* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/02/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 46 51 55 64 71 76 78 78 71 65 53 42 29 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 41 46 50 55 63 70 76 77 77 71 65 53 41 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 46 46 47 51 58 67 74 77 75 70 60 49 41 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 19 9 5 6 3 5 5 14 30 38 47 52 59 73 77 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 -2 0 1 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -6 -9 -9 SHEAR DIR 258 277 294 306 242 318 334 358 230 231 242 250 253 256 276 293 300 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.2 28.6 27.4 26.7 27.0 27.0 24.0 17.2 18.1 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 148 149 151 155 156 147 131 124 128 129 102 77 78 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 147 147 147 145 145 143 133 117 112 114 114 91 72 73 69 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -54.0 -54.9 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 12 13 12 12 12 11 8 8 5 5 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 49 51 51 51 54 54 55 59 62 62 65 64 63 62 66 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 11 13 14 16 15 16 13 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -25 -30 -30 -28 -69 -75 -66 -40 -34 -29 13 23 3 -9 -38 -33 200 MB DIV 23 6 -7 12 18 6 28 29 70 44 10 36 46 32 13 9 9 700-850 TADV -3 3 1 -2 0 9 4 11 17 18 17 17 16 25 33 54 72 LAND (KM) 495 300 119 -1 27 156 412 626 697 532 636 682 634 536 448 778 1197 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 16.2 17.0 18.0 18.9 21.2 23.7 26.3 29.1 32.0 34.8 37.3 39.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.2 63.9 65.5 67.0 68.4 70.9 72.6 73.5 73.3 71.8 68.8 64.4 59.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 17 17 16 16 14 14 15 17 20 22 23 23 24 23 23 HEAT CONTENT 37 36 51 63 47 48 47 29 22 7 5 8 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 804 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. 17. 14. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 2. -4. -12. -19. -29. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. 1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 1. 1. 6. 10. 19. 26. 31. 33. 33. 26. 20. 8. -3. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.3 62.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.50 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.32 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.08 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.05 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 360.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.52 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.73 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.7% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 14.8% 31.3% Logistic: 0.9% 2.4% 1.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.8% 0.9% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 5.1% 3.4% 0.2% 0.0% 3.2% 5.2% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 41 46 50 55 63 70 76 77 77 71 65 53 41 29 18HR AGO 45 44 44 40 45 49 54 62 69 75 76 76 70 64 52 40 28 12HR AGO 45 42 41 37 42 46 51 59 66 72 73 73 67 61 49 37 25 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 40 44 49 57 64 70 71 71 65 59 47 35 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT