* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/01/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 45 46 50 56 62 66 73 75 74 72 69 61 55 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 45 46 50 56 61 66 72 75 74 72 68 61 54 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 46 45 44 45 50 57 65 73 79 79 75 68 58 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 17 16 10 8 5 6 1 8 11 20 31 37 41 52 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 0 0 -5 -3 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 5 2 4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 266 257 265 280 291 290 331 317 48 255 235 231 232 232 234 234 238 SST (C) 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.4 29.1 28.0 27.1 26.6 26.4 26.7 24.1 17.4 18.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 144 147 147 146 149 152 160 155 138 128 123 121 125 103 77 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 144 147 147 146 146 145 149 140 123 115 110 107 109 92 72 72 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 12 13 12 12 12 11 9 7 6 5 4 2 0 700-500 MB RH 48 48 50 50 49 52 53 53 57 59 65 62 61 58 52 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 8 7 7 8 8 11 13 14 13 14 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -27 -21 -30 -27 -56 -75 -82 -55 -59 -25 -4 30 46 61 73 113 200 MB DIV 3 21 14 5 13 14 35 32 40 37 59 53 45 13 21 25 51 700-850 TADV -3 -3 0 1 0 3 6 0 9 12 29 1 20 18 32 4 -5 LAND (KM) 418 505 323 140 11 54 289 484 604 580 531 733 681 674 578 480 763 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.3 16.0 16.9 17.8 20.0 22.4 24.9 27.6 30.3 32.9 35.4 37.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.3 62.0 63.7 65.2 66.8 69.5 71.8 73.5 74.0 73.3 71.0 67.4 63.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 17 17 17 16 16 14 14 15 18 20 20 21 23 23 22 HEAT CONTENT 32 38 34 48 63 48 59 61 25 14 4 4 2 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 21 CX,CY: -18/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 827 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 21. 21. 21. 19. 16. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 4. -0. -6. -12. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -5. -6. -5. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 28. 30. 29. 27. 24. 16. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.5 60.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/01/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.46 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.29 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.44 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.12 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 359.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.52 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.71 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 14.9% 9.8% 7.5% 4.2% 9.6% 15.3% 26.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.6% 3.7% 2.7% 1.4% 3.4% 5.3% 8.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/01/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/01/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 45 45 46 50 56 61 66 72 75 74 72 68 61 54 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 44 45 49 55 60 65 71 74 73 71 67 60 53 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 42 46 52 57 62 68 71 70 68 64 57 50 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 36 40 46 51 56 62 65 64 62 58 51 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT