* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/31/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 34 37 41 45 46 47 46 46 49 50 52 56 59 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 34 37 41 45 46 47 46 46 49 50 52 56 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 36 38 39 38 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 12 11 6 2 3 4 5 3 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -4 -1 -2 -7 -6 -3 -3 -1 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 118 117 123 144 187 121 111 108 188 206 214 187 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 135 135 134 134 134 134 134 138 142 146 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 66 67 68 71 68 65 60 59 57 57 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 23 19 20 14 23 21 23 15 20 17 15 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 23 27 33 20 30 9 6 10 19 25 46 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 0 1 0 1 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 835 800 766 733 708 693 724 837 999 1142 1268 1425 1596 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.8 151.4 152.0 152.8 153.5 155.2 157.3 159.8 162.3 164.8 167.3 169.8 172.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 8 9 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 19 13 9 8 14 16 5 5 17 28 31 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 24. 25. 26. 27. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 16. 17. 16. 16. 19. 20. 22. 26. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 150.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/31/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.7% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 4.2% 1.3% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/31/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##