* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/31/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 33 33 33 36 37 40 43 44 44 46 50 53 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 33 33 33 36 37 40 43 44 44 46 50 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 28 28 28 26 25 24 24 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 14 12 10 5 3 1 2 1 2 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -4 -3 -4 -3 2 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 129 123 117 121 131 228 226 169 233 252 143 202 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 129 132 134 134 132 132 133 132 131 130 130 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 64 67 69 72 68 60 53 51 51 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 31 25 16 11 14 20 21 24 26 27 19 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 35 40 20 25 23 46 18 32 28 51 49 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 -1 1 -2 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 896 859 824 788 755 697 663 652 690 748 839 960 1023 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.8 150.4 151.0 151.6 152.2 153.5 154.9 156.4 157.9 159.4 161.0 162.7 164.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 17 21 17 12 7 11 18 14 5 3 4 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 6. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 16. 20. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 149.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/31/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 1.3% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/31/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##