* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/30/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 34 36 38 39 40 40 41 40 41 43 47 50 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 34 36 38 39 40 40 41 40 41 43 47 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 29 30 30 29 29 28 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 12 12 12 11 7 8 7 6 6 6 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -9 -5 -5 -7 -5 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 122 125 130 137 132 152 242 228 254 242 222 199 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 137 139 137 133 131 131 131 131 131 132 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 64 63 66 70 70 67 64 63 61 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 38 36 35 32 22 29 34 38 36 45 48 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 33 35 31 27 46 41 32 6 36 36 49 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 907 863 822 779 740 680 629 606 620 664 736 813 855 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.9 150.5 151.2 151.9 152.5 153.7 155.0 156.3 157.7 159.1 160.5 161.7 163.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 19 20 15 12 7 9 16 19 9 6 7 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 25. 25. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 11. 13. 17. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 149.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/30/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.2% 6.1% 2.1% 1.2% 0.6% 3.1% 4.5% 7.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/30/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##