* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP082014 07/28/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 65 64 61 55 48 41 32 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 66 65 64 61 55 48 41 32 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 65 64 60 56 48 40 33 27 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 11 8 6 11 5 14 19 25 15 24 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 5 0 0 0 2 -6 -2 -5 -1 -6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 272 281 258 203 169 160 348 347 338 308 287 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 27.9 27.3 26.7 25.6 24.2 23.4 22.9 22.6 22.5 22.7 22.7 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 144 138 132 120 105 96 90 87 85 87 87 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 59 57 54 52 45 39 35 32 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 15 13 11 10 8 6 5 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -18 -30 -29 -43 -45 -37 -60 -47 -47 -44 -48 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 1 -8 -6 17 -1 6 -24 -40 -34 -20 -16 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 10 14 10 9 0 4 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 515 523 552 559 601 701 784 901 1030 1161 1294 1389 1456 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.8 22.9 23.5 23.9 24.2 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.7 114.8 116.0 117.2 119.4 121.2 122.9 124.5 126.0 127.4 128.6 129.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -18. -22. -26. -29. -32. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -13. -17. -19. -19. -20. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -1. -4. -10. -17. -24. -33. -43. -48. -54. -59. -61. -63. -67. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.9 112.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082014 HERNAN 07/28/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.40 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.49 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.21 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 395.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.42 -2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.25 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 26.1% 21.2% 16.6% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 4.3% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 10.2% 8.1% 5.9% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082014 HERNAN 07/28/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##