* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/27/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 25 25 26 31 36 42 46 49 47 46 45 46 49 51 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 25 25 26 31 36 42 46 49 47 46 45 46 49 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 25 23 23 24 25 26 26 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 20 15 16 12 5 4 5 3 5 5 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 -5 -7 -3 -2 2 3 1 6 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 283 278 287 296 317 66 307 80 112 92 284 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 133 133 132 128 125 126 127 130 131 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -51.3 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -51.3 -52.0 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 62 63 60 58 65 71 73 71 65 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 14 15 16 17 17 17 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 21 21 19 20 24 15 29 35 61 85 66 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -15 -9 6 31 71 76 88 48 45 63 36 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -3 -3 -4 -2 1 0 1 2 5 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1878 1793 1708 1620 1533 1365 1189 1026 898 800 700 593 494 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.8 139.7 140.5 141.4 142.3 144.0 145.7 147.2 148.6 149.8 151.2 152.7 154.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 8 9 9 11 9 3 1 1 2 4 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. 1. 6. 12. 16. 19. 17. 16. 15. 16. 19. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 138.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/27/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 9.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/27/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##