* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/26/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 39 38 36 34 38 40 44 50 53 54 53 53 54 54 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 39 38 36 34 38 40 44 50 53 54 53 53 54 54 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 38 36 33 30 28 27 26 26 27 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 14 13 10 11 11 8 4 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 1 3 1 0 -6 1 -1 0 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 293 291 293 290 294 285 336 319 330 346 101 63 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 131 132 134 136 131 132 131 130 131 133 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 64 65 62 56 56 57 61 66 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 15 15 17 15 18 18 19 20 20 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 11 14 19 22 24 13 23 12 30 37 31 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 44 31 13 0 10 16 32 30 62 84 61 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 -4 -1 1 0 1 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2182 2123 2064 1998 1931 1770 1595 1404 1226 1069 937 825 725 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.9 136.5 137.0 137.6 138.2 139.7 141.3 143.2 145.0 146.7 148.3 149.8 151.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 4 5 6 12 8 10 5 4 4 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -2. 0. 4. 10. 13. 14. 13. 13. 14. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.1 135.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/26/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.59 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.19 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.72 -4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.51 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.71 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.30 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 14.5% 12.5% 9.2% 5.4% 9.9% 9.7% 7.4% Logistic: 1.2% 7.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 7.2% 4.8% 3.3% 1.9% 3.3% 3.2% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/26/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##