* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/25/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 40 39 37 37 36 38 41 41 42 42 44 46 48 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 40 39 37 37 36 38 41 41 42 42 44 46 48 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 42 41 38 34 32 31 30 30 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 18 12 11 14 9 16 15 19 7 2 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 0 3 3 5 -1 -7 -9 -3 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 300 299 289 295 319 331 329 333 349 61 181 191 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.3 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 131 132 134 136 131 131 132 130 131 131 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -52.1 -51.7 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 65 64 62 62 59 57 57 62 66 71 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 16 17 14 14 13 14 13 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 8 10 10 13 27 8 7 0 4 20 16 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 60 56 46 10 -10 -29 -16 -2 2 13 59 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -3 -2 -3 -4 -5 -1 2 2 1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2187 2123 2059 1988 1917 1785 1624 1461 1290 1139 987 828 684 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.8 136.4 137.0 137.7 138.3 139.5 141.0 142.6 144.3 145.9 147.5 149.3 151.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 4 5 7 12 8 10 6 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.2 135.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/25/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.60 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.11 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.44 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.70 -3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.25 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.65 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 12.9% 12.2% 9.4% 0.0% 9.5% 8.3% 5.3% Logistic: 0.9% 4.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.7% 4.5% 3.3% 0.1% 3.2% 2.8% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/25/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##