* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062014 07/09/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 37 39 42 43 40 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 37 39 42 43 40 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 34 35 36 36 35 32 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 2 7 9 16 11 21 29 38 34 39 43 39 32 35 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 0 -3 -1 -2 0 0 0 2 0 5 3 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 9 43 320 285 287 306 292 295 292 303 310 306 302 295 280 264 258 SST (C) 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.3 26.7 26.2 26.1 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.6 26.0 25.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 153 151 148 139 132 127 125 114 115 115 116 119 123 122 124 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 74 72 69 66 67 63 59 59 60 59 55 53 52 50 46 46 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 19 11 3 -1 -8 -12 -5 -23 -12 -19 -23 -26 -15 -20 -3 -21 200 MB DIV 65 44 12 -11 -12 6 39 22 41 10 3 -5 -13 -45 -31 -43 -3 700-850 TADV -10 -12 -9 -6 -4 -2 0 0 7 1 0 0 2 -1 -2 -6 -3 LAND (KM) 2105 2179 2261 2343 2412 2287 1964 1681 1419 1192 983 800 617 452 289 167 191 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.5 13.4 14.4 15.2 16.0 16.7 17.2 17.5 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.7 127.2 128.6 130.0 131.4 134.3 137.1 139.6 141.9 143.9 145.8 147.5 149.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 14 15 14 13 13 11 10 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 36 42 51 32 21 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. 18. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -6. -10. -14. -18. -20. -22. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 5. -3. -9. -15. -20. -24. -25. -28. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.8 125.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062014 FAUSTO 07/09/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.82 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.78 5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.28 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 -5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.50 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.37 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.55 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 21.7% 21.2% 17.0% 12.5% 15.7% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 13.3% 4.6% 2.1% 0.4% 1.3% 2.2% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 13.0% 8.7% 6.4% 4.3% 5.7% 5.2% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062014 FAUSTO 07/09/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##