* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062014 07/08/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 43 43 45 48 47 45 39 32 28 25 23 22 21 20 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 43 43 45 48 47 45 39 32 28 25 23 22 21 20 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 42 43 45 45 43 40 35 30 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 6 7 13 17 19 23 34 34 30 30 29 26 27 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 1 -2 -5 -3 -3 -2 1 1 2 5 5 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 5 23 43 6 328 307 315 306 309 298 303 310 319 314 296 268 268 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.0 26.7 26.3 26.2 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.2 25.7 26.1 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 152 154 153 148 135 132 127 125 115 115 116 115 120 124 122 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 73 75 74 72 70 68 62 62 62 62 59 56 50 49 47 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 27 20 15 10 -1 -17 -17 -19 -32 -16 -19 -31 -20 -28 -19 -18 200 MB DIV 48 69 42 19 1 -9 30 25 -11 7 3 -16 -12 -40 -35 -30 -10 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -9 -8 -6 -3 0 -4 0 4 4 0 2 -4 0 -8 -5 LAND (KM) 2072 2126 2188 2260 2340 2488 2224 1921 1654 1443 1246 1047 848 659 469 307 193 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.3 12.3 13.2 14.2 15.1 15.9 16.6 17.1 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.9 125.2 126.5 127.9 129.3 132.2 135.0 137.6 139.9 141.7 143.4 145.2 147.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 15 14 13 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 33 35 40 46 37 18 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. 15. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 8. 7. 5. -1. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 9.8 123.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062014 FAUSTO 07/08/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.78 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.61 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.38 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.80 -5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.30 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.39 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.64 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 24.4% 19.4% 14.7% 0.0% 16.8% 13.7% 11.0% Logistic: 2.1% 16.5% 6.4% 2.7% 1.0% 2.0% 1.9% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 13.7% 8.6% 5.8% 0.3% 6.3% 5.5% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062014 FAUSTO 07/08/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##