* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062014 07/08/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 42 44 47 50 50 48 44 40 36 33 31 31 30 29 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 42 44 47 50 50 48 44 40 36 33 31 31 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 46 49 51 50 47 42 37 32 27 23 20 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 7 15 13 20 21 29 23 26 23 25 27 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -4 0 -3 -2 -3 0 0 4 2 0 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 354 353 13 21 10 312 317 302 307 296 274 251 256 266 294 288 279 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.5 28.1 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.2 25.3 25.2 25.7 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 152 154 151 147 133 129 126 124 115 117 116 121 124 124 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -51.5 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 71 72 74 74 71 67 65 63 63 64 64 60 53 48 47 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 23 21 18 14 0 -14 -21 -26 -32 -25 -25 -30 -38 -38 -44 -30 200 MB DIV 51 38 48 37 17 -1 3 40 5 15 26 24 1 -8 -47 -40 -40 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -7 -4 -3 0 0 0 2 3 2 1 1 0 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 1998 2060 2115 2172 2237 2386 2457 2164 1892 1650 1412 1182 939 702 460 270 175 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.8 12.7 13.7 14.7 15.5 16.2 16.7 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.9 125.1 126.4 127.7 130.3 132.9 135.4 137.7 139.8 141.9 144.0 146.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 34 33 35 40 46 23 15 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 10. 8. 4. -0. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 9.6 122.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062014 FAUSTO 07/08/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.77 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.57 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.39 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.79 -4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.38 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 21.8% 18.3% 14.3% 0.0% 17.4% 13.9% 11.8% Logistic: 1.1% 6.5% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 1.1% 2.0% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 4.1% 10.2% 6.9% 5.1% 0.1% 6.2% 5.3% 5.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062014 FAUSTO 07/08/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##