* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 07/04/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 28 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 28 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 29 27 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 14 11 12 9 7 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -3 -1 1 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 319 303 306 302 296 276 280 223 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.1 23.3 23.3 23.0 22.4 21.6 21.0 20.2 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 94 94 91 84 76 70 62 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 49 48 49 44 43 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 34 25 20 4 -34 -36 -42 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 -5 -11 -10 -9 -17 -3 -7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -2 4 -1 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 677 704 733 737 741 754 826 916 1035 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.8 22.1 22.5 22.9 23.7 24.3 25.1 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.4 118.9 119.5 120.0 121.0 122.3 123.7 125.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -9. -13. -18. -22. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -15. -16. -15. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -10. -18. -25. -33. -42. -45. -48. -51. -54. -59. -62. -64. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.4 117.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/04/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.24 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 234.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/04/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##