* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/03/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 86 90 93 92 85 78 66 48 36 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 86 87 90 90 83 75 52 37 25 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 86 88 89 86 75 57 42 31 32 35 40 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 12 25 46 53 41 31 18 18 31 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 1 -1 2 5 -4 3 0 10 9 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 294 240 210 196 218 195 167 178 191 262 262 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.0 27.6 25.6 24.4 16.0 13.1 15.1 10.1 7.4 6.9 6.9 1.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 138 134 114 104 74 70 72 68 66 65 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 120 117 101 93 70 68 69 66 65 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.1 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 -50.6 -51.9 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.5 2.2 2.9 3.1 2.4 1.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 7 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 49 49 50 49 42 47 50 55 64 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 27 28 32 36 34 27 23 19 15 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 12 13 52 51 81 111 106 115 119 128 137 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 36 38 52 62 35 56 41 44 43 55 47 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 -13 -24 -39 -36 -37 -55 -14 -14 62 109 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 93 53 17 138 220 138 11 23 4 227 551 849 1035 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.9 34.1 35.2 36.6 38.0 41.1 44.2 47.1 50.2 53.4 56.3 58.8 61.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.3 77.2 76.1 74.4 72.6 68.5 64.4 60.4 56.4 52.5 49.2 46.6 44.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 17 20 21 22 21 20 20 19 16 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 11 CX,CY: 4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. -0. -2. -7. -14. -23. -31. -39. -45. -50. -54. -57. -59. -60. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. -0. -6. -12. -16. -18. -16. -14. -16. -21. -24. -26. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 12. 3. -4. -10. -16. -21. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 12. 5. -2. -14. -32. -44. -55. -67. -77. -80. -82. -85. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 32.9 78.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.62 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.75 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.52 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 579.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.27 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.38 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 17.2% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.2% 10.4% 6.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 36.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.4% 9.2% 6.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 10( 16) 12( 26) 9( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 86 87 90 90 83 75 52 37 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 80 83 83 76 68 45 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 79 79 72 64 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 63 55 32 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 86 77 71 68 63 55 32 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 80 86 87 78 72 68 60 37 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS