* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 07/01/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 47 45 42 39 35 31 26 24 21 19 17 17 18 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 47 45 42 39 35 31 26 24 21 19 17 17 18 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 43 43 40 37 34 30 27 24 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 2 4 7 3 5 11 8 10 8 5 6 6 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 -3 -4 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 3 4 4 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 96 152 125 150 137 340 305 311 311 301 289 298 250 274 249 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.5 24.5 24.4 24.5 24.7 24.8 23.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 124 122 120 113 109 106 104 105 105 106 109 110 99 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 73 72 71 70 65 66 66 62 62 55 53 49 46 40 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 20 19 18 17 16 15 15 13 11 9 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 50 52 63 57 68 67 76 66 59 56 40 28 14 8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 74 61 27 32 4 -2 12 4 9 -15 -18 -17 -32 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 -1 2 0 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 716 725 740 737 734 745 756 792 838 886 969 1079 1191 1321 1467 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.7 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.8 19.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.2 115.7 116.1 116.4 117.0 117.4 117.9 118.5 119.1 120.1 121.3 122.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 3 4 5 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -5. -9. -14. -16. -19. -21. -23. -23. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.2 114.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/01/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.53 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 8.4% 4.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 10.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/01/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##