* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/14/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 70 66 63 54 45 36 29 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 72 70 66 63 54 45 36 29 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 71 67 63 58 50 42 35 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 9 10 10 13 22 18 20 15 17 18 26 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 4 2 1 2 0 3 4 2 1 -2 -5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 211 226 244 270 290 284 273 249 247 214 217 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.3 25.6 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.2 23.9 23.7 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 132 128 124 117 112 109 107 101 98 96 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.1 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.6 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.9 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 53 47 45 44 40 37 31 28 25 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 17 17 16 13 11 9 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 8 2 -7 -6 -5 -24 -30 -43 -53 -63 -56 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 0 18 -10 -24 -20 -27 -23 -29 -9 14 16 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 0 1 -1 -3 0 -1 2 2 4 2 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 435 420 411 416 426 456 500 520 552 602 642 684 726 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.4 20.7 20.9 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.4 111.8 112.3 112.7 113.5 114.3 115.1 115.9 116.7 117.3 117.8 118.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -26. -29. -32. -34. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -9. -12. -21. -30. -39. -46. -53. -59. -67. -72. -74. -75. -77. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 19.1 111.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/14/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.25 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 575.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 6.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/14/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##