* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/13/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 102 98 95 93 86 81 76 70 62 54 49 45 41 38 37 36 V (KT) LAND 110 102 98 95 93 86 81 76 70 62 54 49 45 41 38 37 36 V (KT) LGEM 110 102 96 91 87 77 67 60 54 48 41 35 29 24 20 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 4 4 6 6 7 8 11 12 13 11 7 4 5 6 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 4 4 2 -4 0 0 3 4 8 9 10 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 279 274 246 197 220 274 300 295 287 285 276 254 250 327 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.6 28.0 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.3 24.5 24.3 24.1 24.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 155 149 143 136 130 127 124 122 115 107 105 102 105 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -51.1 -50.7 -50.0 -50.5 -49.9 -50.4 -50.4 -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 61 58 57 55 47 41 35 33 29 26 21 20 18 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 21 21 21 19 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 16 15 18 18 8 -3 -2 -8 -17 -34 -32 -42 -45 -49 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 18 45 47 56 27 8 -32 -43 -25 -31 -35 -16 -37 -24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -3 -1 -2 0 0 -2 0 0 2 2 4 4 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 408 438 469 503 471 443 458 501 562 640 713 831 969 1106 1254 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.2 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.5 19.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.7 109.3 110.0 110.6 111.6 112.5 113.3 114.2 115.2 116.5 118.0 119.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 17 15 11 7 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -2. -8. -17. -25. -33. -39. -45. -50. -53. -56. -59. -62. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -12. -15. -17. -24. -29. -34. -40. -48. -56. -61. -65. -69. -72. -73. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 17.1 108.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/13/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.11 0.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.76 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.41 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 550.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.23 -0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.11 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.22 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 15.6% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.5% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/13/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##