* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/12/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 135 137 133 130 115 100 87 76 68 59 51 43 37 31 31 32 V (KT) LAND 125 135 137 133 130 115 100 87 76 68 59 51 43 37 31 31 32 V (KT) LGEM 125 131 130 126 120 106 91 79 69 61 55 49 43 36 29 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 2 3 1 5 7 4 8 10 12 14 19 22 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 2 3 1 0 0 -4 1 1 3 5 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 200 185 193 251 200 244 298 284 274 253 252 268 293 315 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.0 27.4 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.7 24.8 24.2 24.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 157 154 143 136 130 126 123 121 118 109 103 101 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.4 -50.8 -51.2 -51.2 -49.8 -50.4 -50.0 -50.2 -50.2 -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 62 58 54 54 50 48 43 38 32 30 27 28 25 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 18 20 21 21 20 19 18 16 14 13 11 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 17 14 18 17 15 8 0 3 0 -7 -30 -33 -50 -52 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 82 -18 2 31 68 -1 2 -14 -26 -14 -17 -32 -36 -46 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 1 4 4 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 380 395 426 455 486 483 458 452 471 508 566 627 706 815 929 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.6 19.1 19.5 19.8 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.5 108.2 108.9 109.5 110.7 111.7 112.4 113.1 113.7 114.5 115.5 116.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 3 3 4 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 19 18 18 15 8 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -12. -22. -33. -43. -51. -57. -62. -64. -68. -71. -74. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 5. 3. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 11. 15. 14. 12. 7. 1. -5. -8. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 12. 8. 5. -10. -25. -38. -49. -57. -66. -74. -82. -88. -94. -94. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 16.4 106.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/12/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -20.0 to 40.0 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.95 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 641.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 55% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 55.3% 24.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 39.7% 14.1% 21.7% 18.0% 8.4% 6.6% 2.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 32.7% 12.9% 7.2% 6.0% 2.8% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/12/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##