* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/12/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 107 111 111 110 105 96 89 81 75 66 58 51 44 39 38 38 V (KT) LAND 100 107 111 111 110 105 96 89 81 75 66 58 51 44 39 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 100 107 109 107 105 98 89 79 69 61 54 47 40 32 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 2 1 2 2 5 7 9 9 13 13 16 17 19 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 2 0 1 4 3 0 0 -3 2 4 4 3 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 296 269 233 222 7 264 195 251 279 285 274 260 249 269 282 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 28.6 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.0 24.2 23.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 156 156 157 149 139 133 128 122 119 116 111 103 100 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -50.3 -50.5 -51.1 -50.5 -50.3 -50.2 -50.1 -50.2 -50.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 61 58 56 53 52 51 42 38 33 32 30 29 26 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 19 19 16 15 13 11 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 2 13 15 18 10 6 -1 -3 0 -12 -26 -47 -55 -69 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 44 72 16 -14 50 37 34 -22 -33 -29 -10 -22 -26 -33 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -2 -5 -3 -4 0 -1 0 0 3 0 5 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 374 372 383 414 451 508 459 436 452 469 513 567 623 708 812 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.5 18.3 18.9 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.4 20.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.1 106.8 107.4 108.1 108.8 110.0 111.1 111.9 112.7 113.3 114.1 115.1 116.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 7 7 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 22 19 17 18 11 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -16. -22. -27. -32. -35. -37. -40. -44. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 11. 10. 5. -4. -11. -19. -25. -34. -41. -49. -56. -61. -62. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.1 106.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/12/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.25 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.75 9.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.93 8.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 470.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.33 -2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.76 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.27 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 47.7% 36.5% 32.2% 29.0% 23.4% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.8% 15.2% 16.1% 11.2% 4.4% 6.8% 3.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 12.3% 7.5% 2.5% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 25.6% 19.7% 16.9% 13.8% 9.5% 9.1% 1.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/12/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##