* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/11/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 74 81 87 98 97 91 82 75 66 57 48 40 33 34 35 V (KT) LAND 60 67 74 81 87 98 97 91 82 75 66 57 48 40 33 34 35 V (KT) LGEM 60 67 73 78 83 93 96 92 83 73 64 55 46 38 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 8 5 6 4 1 2 9 12 13 11 18 22 28 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -5 -4 -3 2 6 5 2 0 0 0 2 1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 353 343 358 346 17 359 276 253 238 243 283 274 256 244 245 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.2 27.5 27.0 26.3 25.8 25.4 24.5 24.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 157 158 156 154 145 137 132 124 119 115 106 104 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 -50.4 -51.2 -51.9 -52.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 60 58 57 53 55 52 50 42 36 31 28 21 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 16 17 17 17 20 19 20 19 20 18 17 14 13 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 0 7 9 5 15 11 3 -5 -8 -12 -8 -18 -15 -26 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 34 64 59 47 59 34 19 24 4 -33 -19 -20 0 -29 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -4 0 -1 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 329 350 379 398 418 437 492 535 492 501 531 594 656 730 823 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.6 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.5 105.2 105.9 106.6 107.9 109.2 110.4 111.5 112.6 113.6 114.6 115.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 40 41 36 30 19 18 10 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 61.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 21. 27. 38. 37. 31. 22. 15. 6. -3. -12. -20. -27. -26. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.2 103.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/11/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.63 12.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 11.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.66 10.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.44 6.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.59 -8.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 13.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.66 7.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.37 2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.39 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 4.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 59% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 38.5% 63.2% 62.2% 59.9% 48.6% 58.8% 45.6% 0.0% Logistic: 16.8% 45.6% 35.3% 28.4% 36.4% 22.9% 7.9% 3.3% Bayesian: 2.1% 37.8% 18.8% 8.5% 10.0% 7.0% 2.9% 0.2% Consensus: 19.1% 48.9% 38.8% 32.3% 31.7% 29.6% 18.8% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/11/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##