* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/10/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 64 71 80 86 85 83 77 72 65 61 53 45 37 30 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 64 71 80 86 85 83 77 72 65 61 53 45 37 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 56 61 67 78 85 87 83 74 66 58 50 42 33 26 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 7 6 6 4 2 2 8 11 14 18 23 30 28 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -3 -5 -5 -6 -6 -1 3 7 3 1 2 2 2 4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 3 7 355 338 318 292 247 243 247 234 252 263 266 248 244 253 262 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.6 27.8 27.1 26.7 25.7 25.0 24.2 23.8 24.0 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 158 158 157 154 149 141 133 129 119 111 103 99 101 101 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -50.4 -50.5 -50.9 -50.6 -51.0 -51.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 59 57 54 52 48 49 48 47 40 35 30 28 24 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 12 14 14 17 18 19 17 17 16 16 14 12 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 8 10 1 -9 -6 -1 9 10 2 -2 -4 -17 -5 -20 -17 -26 -26 200 MB DIV 44 44 37 19 25 41 25 7 41 0 -9 -10 -5 -24 -3 -13 -12 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 -4 0 -1 1 1 4 3 5 LAND (KM) 279 287 311 337 365 419 461 533 562 527 540 584 646 693 769 872 967 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.8 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.0 19.5 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.7 104.3 105.0 105.6 107.0 108.3 109.6 110.8 111.9 113.1 114.3 115.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 30 33 40 42 39 26 19 16 8 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 51.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. 14. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 10. 13. 11. 11. 8. 7. 4. 2. -0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 26. 35. 41. 40. 38. 32. 27. 20. 16. 8. 0. -8. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.5 103.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/10/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.79 12.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 8.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.66 8.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.67 -7.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 6.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.79 7.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.37 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.42 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 53% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 60% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.5% 52.7% 47.0% 34.5% 24.7% 53.0% 60.3% 49.1% Logistic: 25.3% 55.3% 44.0% 31.0% 41.8% 35.2% 40.0% 25.1% Bayesian: 2.6% 62.1% 27.3% 10.0% 21.0% 21.8% 9.3% 1.6% Consensus: 16.5% 56.7% 39.5% 25.1% 29.2% 36.7% 36.6% 25.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/10/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##