* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/10/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 54 61 71 77 85 84 81 78 73 66 60 52 43 36 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 54 61 71 77 85 84 81 78 73 66 60 52 43 36 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 51 55 65 74 81 82 78 72 64 55 45 36 29 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 8 5 4 3 7 1 5 11 13 19 21 27 31 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -6 -6 -3 -3 -2 0 4 1 2 0 3 1 2 1 3 SHEAR DIR 6 2 16 7 344 344 264 55 233 212 222 241 266 258 243 242 248 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.2 27.4 26.9 26.2 25.4 24.5 23.8 24.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 158 159 158 156 152 145 136 131 124 115 106 99 102 102 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.2 -51.7 -50.6 -51.3 -50.5 -51.2 -50.5 -50.9 -51.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 8 6 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 61 59 55 54 51 50 49 46 41 37 33 28 24 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 10 12 15 16 20 20 19 19 18 16 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 13 4 -8 0 -2 6 6 1 -6 -17 -12 -17 -21 -33 -40 200 MB DIV 49 36 35 35 15 38 42 49 23 31 5 4 -10 -19 -21 -20 -17 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -5 -3 -2 -2 -4 -2 -2 -2 1 0 0 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 253 269 283 308 339 408 445 509 575 556 539 569 643 682 762 855 963 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.9 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.6 103.2 103.7 104.3 105.0 106.4 107.8 109.1 110.3 111.5 112.6 113.8 115.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 33 38 42 33 21 18 12 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 22. 21. 20. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 8. 6. 3. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 21. 31. 37. 45. 44. 41. 38. 33. 26. 20. 12. 3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.6 102.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/10/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.84 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.63 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.37 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 -5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.63 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.35 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.46 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 57% is 12.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 34.5% 28.1% 21.5% 15.4% 35.1% 45.0% 57.3% Logistic: 14.6% 47.2% 34.4% 21.9% 32.3% 25.7% 28.8% 23.7% Bayesian: 0.7% 38.0% 11.1% 2.9% 3.7% 18.7% 13.8% 4.3% Consensus: 10.0% 39.9% 24.5% 15.4% 17.1% 26.5% 29.2% 28.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/10/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##