* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/10/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 48 53 64 70 76 75 77 73 72 67 62 56 50 43 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 48 53 64 70 76 75 77 73 72 67 62 56 50 43 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 56 65 71 74 71 67 61 55 48 41 33 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 12 10 7 7 3 3 6 10 9 15 19 22 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -6 -5 -6 -4 -2 0 5 3 1 4 2 3 4 5 4 SHEAR DIR 19 6 358 7 2 325 298 270 249 182 204 230 234 261 247 244 247 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.6 27.8 27.2 26.8 26.1 25.6 24.4 24.2 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 158 158 158 156 154 149 140 134 130 123 118 106 104 104 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -51.3 -52.0 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 63 61 56 53 53 50 52 49 47 39 35 28 26 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 7 8 8 8 12 13 17 15 18 17 18 16 15 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 14 13 11 10 -1 -9 -5 1 0 -3 -9 -11 -21 -12 -22 -21 -31 200 MB DIV 61 55 49 43 25 10 25 19 20 -1 -14 -13 -14 -20 -20 -11 -22 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 -5 -4 -6 -2 0 0 0 -1 0 2 1 3 2 LAND (KM) 228 262 272 286 312 370 404 456 527 560 534 531 599 709 793 907 1053 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.2 102.8 103.3 103.9 104.5 105.8 107.2 108.4 109.6 110.7 111.8 112.8 114.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 32 30 31 34 39 37 23 19 16 9 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. 27. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. -0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 8. 14. 14. 18. 15. 16. 12. 10. 7. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 29. 35. 41. 40. 42. 38. 37. 32. 27. 21. 15. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.6 102.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/10/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.88 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.40 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.44 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.72 -5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.56 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.33 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.51 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 23.6% 22.7% 18.4% 13.0% 20.0% 22.5% 41.6% Logistic: 4.8% 21.3% 13.1% 7.1% 12.9% 18.9% 35.0% 23.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 17.1% 3.9% 1.0% 2.0% 3.2% 4.9% 2.2% Consensus: 6.0% 20.7% 13.2% 8.8% 9.3% 14.1% 20.8% 22.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/10/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##