* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BORIS EP022014 06/03/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 42 45 46 47 47 48 48 50 51 52 53 56 59 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 37 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 38 30 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 3 2 5 5 10 12 16 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 6 1 0 0 -2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 211 180 222 239 260 282 280 293 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.0 27.3 26.8 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 158 154 150 141 134 128 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.7 -51.3 -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 8 7 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 84 83 82 82 81 81 80 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 75 67 58 56 38 42 48 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 99 89 63 47 47 41 49 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 1 2 0 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 125 92 56 26 -4 -68 -111 -56 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.1 94.1 94.1 94.1 94.1 94.1 94.2 94.3 94.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 22 22 20 17 10 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 21. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.7 94.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022014 BORIS 06/03/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.86 10.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.82 8.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.61 6.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -5.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.92 -8.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.19 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.68 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.7% 50.7% 34.0% 24.5% 15.9% 29.0% 29.9% 15.3% Logistic: 25.5% 71.8% 53.5% 40.2% 7.0% 50.7% 23.9% 12.4% Bayesian: 6.4% 45.9% 31.5% 16.2% 2.0% 42.1% 22.1% 2.1% Consensus: 16.2% 56.1% 39.6% 27.0% 8.3% 40.6% 25.3% 9.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022014 BORIS 06/03/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##