* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/27/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 107 101 95 87 74 63 59 55 52 50 49 49 48 46 46 46 V (KT) LAND 110 107 101 95 87 74 63 59 55 52 50 49 49 48 46 46 46 V (KT) LGEM 110 106 99 91 83 68 56 48 44 41 40 40 41 40 40 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 15 19 19 17 9 7 5 8 7 6 6 8 6 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 3 6 6 11 13 1 1 0 5 6 3 2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 180 191 204 204 209 240 187 207 179 179 177 156 130 112 121 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 142 140 137 132 130 129 128 128 126 126 125 124 123 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 67 68 67 62 57 49 46 44 41 40 39 39 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 20 20 20 20 18 19 18 17 16 15 15 14 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 45 43 44 44 44 44 42 45 36 36 50 56 49 43 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 65 81 83 55 50 21 3 40 8 6 0 14 -7 8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 3 1 1 2 4 1 0 0 1 3 4 2 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 967 947 926 909 878 822 773 733 696 669 659 663 669 677 695 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.2 112.2 112.3 112.3 112.2 112.0 111.7 111.5 111.3 111.3 111.5 111.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 22 19 16 12 7 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -20. -28. -35. -41. -46. -49. -50. -52. -54. -57. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -8. -4. 0. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -15. -23. -36. -47. -51. -55. -58. -60. -61. -61. -62. -64. -64. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 14.0 112.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/27/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.02 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 354.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 4.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/27/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##