* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/26/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 111 102 92 82 67 59 52 51 48 45 43 42 42 40 40 38 V (KT) LAND 120 111 102 92 82 67 59 52 51 48 45 43 42 42 40 40 38 V (KT) LGEM 120 113 104 93 83 67 54 44 37 33 32 31 31 31 30 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 26 24 23 22 20 14 10 8 9 7 7 10 13 11 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 9 8 9 9 10 1 0 0 0 4 6 6 4 6 SHEAR DIR 174 180 176 187 203 220 208 213 216 190 178 147 136 128 124 110 127 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 148 145 142 133 129 126 126 126 127 126 127 126 124 123 122 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -50.9 -51.2 -50.9 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 67 67 66 64 59 55 50 47 43 45 42 39 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 25 22 21 20 21 18 18 16 15 13 13 12 11 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 50 56 55 54 43 41 33 33 41 42 42 33 42 39 32 26 10 200 MB DIV 92 112 60 75 76 89 64 37 15 4 -3 4 -16 23 -8 -10 -16 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 2 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 993 966 943 925 907 828 786 754 719 691 664 629 632 657 693 746 790 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.6 111.8 111.9 112.1 112.2 112.4 112.4 112.4 112.3 112.1 111.9 111.8 111.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 0 1 2 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 35 31 27 22 18 8 4 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -24. -34. -42. -49. -55. -59. -60. -62. -64. -67. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -6. -12. -17. -21. -24. -21. -14. -8. -3. -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -14. -13. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -28. -38. -53. -61. -68. -69. -72. -75. -77. -78. -78. -80. -80. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 13.1 111.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/26/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/26/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##