* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/25/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 127 119 112 105 89 77 68 62 61 55 48 44 42 41 41 40 V (KT) LAND 130 127 119 112 105 89 77 68 62 61 55 48 44 42 41 41 40 V (KT) LGEM 130 126 119 111 103 87 73 60 50 44 39 36 35 35 35 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 20 19 20 21 21 20 18 14 7 15 9 8 8 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 2 1 0 3 4 1 2 0 -2 -7 -5 -2 -1 3 4 SHEAR DIR 192 193 189 175 167 179 194 197 205 209 170 182 205 178 147 139 147 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 154 152 147 141 137 134 134 132 129 123 124 126 129 128 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 70 73 70 71 69 67 61 56 50 47 42 40 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 24 24 25 25 24 23 21 22 20 17 16 13 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 43 50 46 44 47 37 39 32 33 49 51 46 31 40 24 32 29 200 MB DIV 59 29 25 62 117 87 97 77 65 23 12 10 -3 13 29 51 3 700-850 TADV -2 0 -3 -2 0 2 6 3 5 1 1 0 1 2 4 6 5 LAND (KM) 1046 1023 1002 974 946 883 822 761 680 607 547 489 445 425 435 489 544 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.6 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.5 18.0 18.5 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.2 111.3 111.4 111.5 111.5 111.6 111.6 111.5 111.3 110.9 110.5 110.2 110.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 40 40 40 38 35 25 16 9 6 5 5 2 1 0 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -14. -25. -36. -45. -53. -59. -63. -65. -67. -69. -73. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -14. -17. -21. -20. -16. -10. -5. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -5. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -11. -18. -25. -41. -53. -62. -68. -69. -75. -82. -86. -88. -89. -89. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 12.1 111.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/25/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 444.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 2.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/25/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##