* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/23/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 47 54 61 73 80 80 78 70 63 57 52 47 43 40 39 V (KT) LAND 35 41 47 54 61 73 80 80 78 70 63 57 52 47 43 40 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 44 49 54 66 74 77 75 68 59 50 42 36 31 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 7 6 8 12 10 19 19 25 22 20 15 20 19 11 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -4 -4 -3 -1 0 2 4 3 5 5 2 -1 2 6 SHEAR DIR 155 144 134 120 137 172 187 159 175 188 201 212 213 223 249 290 257 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 156 156 156 157 157 156 155 153 150 147 142 139 137 134 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 80 76 73 72 70 69 68 68 70 68 69 68 67 63 62 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 16 19 21 21 22 20 19 18 17 15 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 38 41 39 31 38 38 42 44 50 41 32 22 24 31 32 38 41 200 MB DIV 122 128 96 62 68 79 77 39 91 91 88 57 45 33 19 31 27 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 1 1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 998 1005 1014 1020 1025 1027 1041 1036 1025 1009 972 918 861 774 704 644 585 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.8 14.6 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.0 109.3 109.7 110.0 110.5 111.0 111.3 111.6 111.9 112.0 112.0 111.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 30 32 34 36 37 41 43 44 44 42 35 27 20 13 9 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 34. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 10. 12. 10. 8. 6. 4. 1. -0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 26. 38. 45. 45. 43. 35. 28. 22. 17. 12. 8. 5. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.9 108.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/23/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.86 10.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.55 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.72 6.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.81 -6.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.58 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.34 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.22 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 41.1% 31.2% 23.7% 15.5% 35.2% 38.1% 33.6% Logistic: 22.0% 59.0% 44.4% 29.9% 29.9% 42.6% 74.0% 62.6% Bayesian: 32.4% 81.8% 79.2% 61.5% 23.4% 49.9% 42.1% 15.7% Consensus: 23.2% 60.6% 51.6% 38.4% 22.9% 42.5% 51.4% 37.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/23/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##