* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012014 05/23/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 45 50 61 70 77 81 78 75 73 70 65 61 58 55 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 45 50 61 70 77 81 78 75 73 70 65 61 58 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 40 47 56 63 67 65 61 57 52 45 40 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 10 8 8 10 11 14 18 18 12 12 11 10 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -6 -5 -5 0 -2 1 0 1 4 6 8 2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 178 161 154 145 142 155 181 171 194 176 183 188 211 190 202 171 130 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 155 155 156 157 156 157 157 157 156 154 153 150 146 140 135 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -53.0 -51.7 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.2 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 80 78 76 74 73 70 72 73 71 73 73 71 68 62 54 43 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 13 14 16 19 22 24 24 24 24 23 20 17 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 24 32 37 34 26 36 33 42 36 36 25 24 21 30 31 21 26 200 MB DIV 102 113 120 94 78 78 63 90 64 73 100 107 67 30 4 9 32 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 2 3 4 2 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 990 996 1004 1014 1022 1036 1057 1065 1076 1072 1055 1040 1006 956 881 807 723 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.3 108.7 109.0 109.3 109.6 110.2 110.7 111.1 111.5 111.8 112.0 112.3 112.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 29 31 32 34 35 38 41 43 45 45 44 40 34 27 18 10 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. 37. 39. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 18. 17. 16. 13. 9. 6. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 31. 40. 47. 51. 48. 45. 43. 40. 35. 31. 28. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.8 108.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 ONE 05/23/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.90 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.46 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.75 5.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.84 -6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.67 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.32 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.33 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 34.9% 24.8% 20.0% 0.0% 27.7% 35.0% 44.2% Logistic: 15.4% 60.1% 43.5% 28.5% 38.3% 47.9% 76.6% 73.5% Bayesian: 7.5% 57.0% 50.6% 23.1% 2.6% 49.8% 57.9% 29.0% Consensus: 12.1% 50.6% 39.6% 23.8% 13.7% 41.8% 56.5% 48.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 ONE 05/23/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##