* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/22/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 43 44 42 37 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 43 44 42 37 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 41 40 37 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 20 32 43 56 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 12 10 6 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 286 282 284 286 299 309 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 17.8 17.3 16.9 16.7 16.6 16.7 17.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 77 76 74 73 72 72 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 73 71 70 69 68 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.7 -58.5 -58.1 -58.3 -58.6 -59.3 -59.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.1 -0.5 -1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 43 44 45 43 36 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 21 18 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 70 75 66 58 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 16 10 2 -29 -36 -74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 17 18 40 36 14 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1776 1545 1315 1136 957 726 462 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.2 41.6 42.0 42.0 42.0 41.2 40.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.5 27.8 25.1 22.9 20.7 17.6 14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 21 18 16 14 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 24 CX,CY: 23/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. -21. -24. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -6. -14. -21. -27. -33. -38. -44. -51. -56. -59. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 30. 29. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -3. -7. -14. -17. -19. -20. -22. -23. -23. -23. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. -3. -8. -20. -28. -33. -36. -40. -42. -46. -51. -54. -57. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 41.2 30.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/22/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.14 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/22/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 43 44 42 37 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 45 43 38 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 40 35 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT