* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/20/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 45 47 49 53 50 46 40 35 33 31 30 29 26 25 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 45 47 49 53 50 46 40 35 33 31 30 29 26 25 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 41 42 43 45 45 44 42 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 25 27 28 24 14 11 28 25 16 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -2 -3 0 8 3 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 203 200 198 200 192 199 274 270 281 265 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.5 22.6 21.7 20.1 19.9 17.7 15.8 14.6 12.9 10.8 11.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 94 90 84 84 77 73 70 68 66 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 85 87 84 79 78 73 69 67 65 64 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.0 -57.9 -57.9 -58.2 -58.5 -58.8 -57.9 -57.6 -57.8 -58.3 -58.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 0.7 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 41 39 37 35 39 45 43 46 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 23 23 23 22 23 20 16 12 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 122 111 103 103 85 118 87 62 -11 -64 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 47 46 51 56 32 24 18 30 37 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -13 -13 -9 -28 -7 30 48 33 23 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1396 1291 1225 1230 1288 1550 1712 1361 1074 921 831 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.2 35.5 36.8 38.1 39.3 41.6 44.0 46.5 49.3 52.2 55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.4 49.0 46.6 43.8 40.9 35.0 30.3 27.0 24.9 23.8 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 23 25 26 26 23 19 16 15 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 18 CX,CY: 15/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -15. -17. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 14. 18. 23. 27. 28. 30. 31. 31. 29. 27. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -9. -14. -22. -30. -31. -31. -30. -29. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 8. 5. 1. -5. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -19. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 34.2 51.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.05 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.30 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.56 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 313.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.57 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.08 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.42 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 83.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.12 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 5.5% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 44 45 47 49 53 50 46 40 35 33 31 30 29 26 25 18HR AGO 45 44 44 45 47 49 53 50 46 40 35 33 31 30 29 26 25 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 44 46 50 47 43 37 32 30 28 27 26 23 22 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 39 43 40 36 30 25 23 21 20 19 16 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT