* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/20/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 45 46 47 49 50 52 48 47 44 42 41 41 40 37 36 V (KT) LAND 45 44 45 46 47 49 50 52 48 47 44 42 41 41 40 37 36 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 41 42 42 43 44 46 46 46 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 25 27 27 19 11 22 22 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 -2 0 3 9 0 1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 205 193 192 191 187 217 259 263 237 196 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.6 22.5 22.5 21.6 20.6 18.2 16.1 15.2 13.9 12.6 10.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 93 93 90 86 79 74 72 69 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 88 85 86 83 80 74 70 68 66 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.2 -58.2 -58.2 -58.1 -58.3 -58.7 -57.8 -57.5 -57.5 -57.8 -58.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.0 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 47 44 42 38 36 39 45 46 44 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 26 26 26 25 25 25 22 20 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 141 130 126 116 119 116 125 79 38 -38 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 66 33 51 54 45 29 25 40 59 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -12 -21 -20 -22 -23 -2 52 58 53 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1500 1370 1261 1201 1189 1335 1588 1559 1219 1035 938 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.2 34.5 35.7 37.0 38.2 40.7 43.0 45.4 48.2 51.4 54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.2 51.3 49.4 46.8 44.3 38.7 33.6 29.0 26.3 25.3 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 20 22 24 24 24 21 18 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 12 CX,CY: 8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 799 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 17. 21. 25. 26. 28. 29. 29. 26. 25. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -11. -15. -21. -22. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -8. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 33.2 53.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.13 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.76 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.45 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 302.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.58 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.42 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 85.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.10 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 8.9% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 45 46 47 49 50 52 48 47 44 42 41 41 40 37 36 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 47 49 50 52 48 47 44 42 41 41 40 37 36 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 45 46 48 44 43 40 38 37 37 36 33 32 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 38 39 41 37 36 33 31 30 30 29 26 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT