* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/19/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 57 57 57 56 59 50 47 47 46 45 47 47 46 44 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 57 57 57 56 59 50 47 47 46 45 47 47 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 56 57 55 53 52 49 48 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 15 21 24 24 16 9 12 20 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -3 -1 -2 -1 8 2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 214 204 190 186 184 176 254 244 222 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.5 22.8 22.3 22.2 20.6 18.6 16.7 15.7 13.5 12.0 10.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 93 92 92 86 79 75 72 69 68 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 85 85 84 85 80 74 71 68 66 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.2 -58.4 -58.5 -58.4 -58.3 -58.3 -58.2 -57.3 -56.7 -57.2 -58.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.9 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 52 50 48 44 37 34 43 53 54 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 27 26 26 26 25 24 24 18 16 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 129 136 127 127 126 140 146 112 82 16 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 88 73 43 58 51 31 23 37 60 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -8 -23 -28 -45 -20 1 42 23 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1539 1445 1308 1197 1127 1160 1375 1601 1442 1231 1094 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.4 33.7 35.0 36.4 37.7 40.5 42.9 45.2 47.9 51.2 54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.4 52.9 51.4 49.1 46.8 41.5 36.5 32.2 29.4 28.1 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 18 21 23 24 23 21 18 16 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 857 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -23. -26. -29. -32. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. 16. 20. 24. 25. 27. 28. 27. 25. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -9. -19. -23. -26. -26. -27. -26. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 4. -5. -8. -8. -9. -10. -8. -8. -9. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 32.4 54.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/19/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.32 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 328.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 93.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.02 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142013 MELISSA 11/19/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/19/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 56 57 57 57 56 59 50 47 47 46 45 47 47 46 44 18HR AGO 55 54 55 56 56 56 55 58 49 46 46 45 44 46 46 45 43 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 52 52 51 54 45 42 42 41 40 42 42 41 39 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 45 44 47 38 35 35 34 33 35 35 34 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT