* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182013 11/02/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 30 31 34 36 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 30 31 34 36 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 29 28 25 23 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 14 11 8 12 6 10 28 51 70 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 3 2 3 7 5 2 -9 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 73 81 85 75 110 182 225 235 226 231 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.9 28.6 25.8 25.7 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 151 149 146 146 154 151 122 120 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 4 5 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 57 57 57 58 59 60 54 48 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 13 12 12 12 11 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 25 11 14 24 15 19 22 67 73 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 58 31 42 50 -6 37 69 87 22 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 0 -2 -1 -8 -7 -6 48 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 446 471 498 512 528 401 199 113 -141 -360 -576 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.7 18.1 19.3 21.2 23.4 25.4 27.1 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.7 109.2 109.7 110.1 110.2 109.4 108.1 106.7 105.3 104.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 8 11 12 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 17 15 13 11 8 13 11 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -6. -20. -34. -37. -38. -40. -42. -48. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 6. -6. -15. -26. -27. -27. -28. -30. -34. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.8 108.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182013 EIGHTEEN 11/02/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.86 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.31 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.43 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 -4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.15 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.4 2.0 to -2.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 18.9% 13.8% 9.9% 0.0% 13.0% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.5% 4.7% 3.3% 0.0% 4.4% 4.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182013 EIGHTEEN 11/02/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##