* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/30/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 26 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 26 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 40 42 45 49 45 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 8 9 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 218 232 246 247 238 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.6 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.3 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 106 107 105 104 102 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 47 46 45 44 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -1 21 20 19 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 27 29 24 15 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 5 4 8 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 700 653 606 575 543 499 465 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.6 21.0 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.8 115.6 115.3 115.2 115.0 114.9 114.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 11. 8. 6. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -20. -33. -44. -52. -55. -57. -58. -60. -67. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -15. -25. -37. -49. -60. -68. -75. -79. -83. -86. -91. -98.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.4 115.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/30/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.44 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/30/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##