* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/30/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 33 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 33 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 33 29 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 29 40 42 44 43 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 9 7 9 9 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 210 218 232 244 244 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.6 24.6 24.7 24.8 24.7 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 106 106 107 107 106 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 48 45 46 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 5 4 16 20 27 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 51 29 39 30 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 5 6 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 775 723 671 634 597 553 514 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.6 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.3 116.1 115.8 115.6 115.3 115.2 115.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -20. -30. -38. -44. -47. -49. -50. -52. -57. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -17. -28. -40. -51. -60. -66. -71. -75. -78. -82. -87. -94. -99. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.9 116.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/30/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/30/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##