* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/29/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 32 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 36 32 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 36 32 28 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 27 34 39 39 36 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 15 9 7 9 10 10 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 207 205 214 228 244 240 220 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.1 24.7 24.6 24.7 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 112 107 106 106 107 106 107 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 52 48 46 44 43 39 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 7 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -12 0 5 19 31 33 43 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 37 42 24 44 24 19 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 -1 4 9 4 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 854 802 750 708 666 631 621 621 627 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.7 116.5 116.2 116.0 115.7 115.4 115.4 115.4 115.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -14. -21. -27. -31. -33. -35. -35. -37. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -18. -28. -38. -47. -53. -57. -59. -61. -63. -65. -69. -75. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.3 116.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/29/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/29/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##