* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/28/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 54 45 38 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 54 45 38 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 55 47 40 34 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 26 25 19 18 29 33 35 33 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 7 14 13 9 8 4 0 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 239 241 242 220 213 233 238 241 230 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.7 25.2 25.1 25.2 25.2 25.1 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 124 122 117 112 110 111 110 108 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 61 60 58 51 39 33 30 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 21 21 18 16 12 8 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 13 7 6 20 42 38 25 23 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 43 29 17 14 38 27 5 10 0 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 5 4 4 1 1 4 1 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 998 955 914 873 828 749 680 631 601 591 587 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.4 19.0 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.9 116.8 116.7 116.6 116.4 116.0 115.6 115.2 115.0 115.0 114.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -18. -20. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -23. -25. -26. -28. -28. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -9. -15. -22. -25. -26. -25. -23. -20. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -20. -27. -35. -44. -55. -66. -75. -81. -84. -85. -87. -87. -87. -89. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.7 116.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/28/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 305.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.24 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/28/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##