* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/27/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 85 86 85 75 65 51 40 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 81 85 86 85 75 65 51 40 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 82 85 86 83 72 57 42 31 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 7 12 11 18 22 14 18 23 24 25 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 4 6 8 18 19 15 8 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 137 166 163 195 210 252 228 212 219 214 218 215 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 142 139 136 129 127 126 126 126 125 124 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 60 62 63 63 63 57 43 30 25 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 22 24 23 22 18 16 12 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 16 19 23 23 21 26 33 55 67 78 87 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 52 83 60 53 61 27 15 13 24 22 17 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -3 0 4 5 3 -1 -4 0 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1157 1154 1156 1134 1114 1052 993 959 934 906 891 891 891 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.7 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.7 116.3 116.9 117.2 117.5 117.6 117.5 117.4 117.3 117.3 117.2 117.2 117.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 3 3 1 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 11 10 8 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -3. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -13. -18. -19. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 11. 10. 0. -10. -24. -35. -45. -55. -61. -66. -67. -68. -69. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.0 115.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/27/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.34 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.46 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.49 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 354.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.47 -3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 5.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.82 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.32 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 52.1% 35.8% 30.8% 25.2% 16.1% 17.3% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 26.3% 23.1% 15.1% 11.7% 3.3% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 19.3% 5.6% 2.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 32.6% 21.5% 16.0% 12.7% 6.5% 6.6% 3.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/27/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##