* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/26/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 52 55 58 59 56 51 45 39 33 29 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 52 55 58 59 56 51 45 39 33 29 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 48 49 51 50 44 36 29 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 1 3 4 8 15 18 17 13 18 15 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 5 5 3 0 4 10 13 15 10 4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 345 48 92 138 174 211 221 218 225 210 206 199 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.9 28.1 27.5 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 147 145 141 143 137 130 128 128 129 132 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 63 63 63 63 66 65 68 65 59 52 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 19 20 20 21 22 21 19 17 14 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 9 12 7 8 14 2 8 0 36 55 98 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 34 39 36 34 53 47 42 57 68 50 52 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 2 8 7 5 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1112 1161 1186 1198 1216 1178 1092 998 928 867 807 758 713 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.7 15.8 16.7 17.3 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.0 114.0 114.9 115.7 116.4 117.1 117.2 116.9 116.6 116.1 115.4 114.7 114.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 11 10 9 13 9 3 3 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. -0. -4. -9. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 11. 6. 0. -6. -12. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.0 113.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/26/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.67 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.86 5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.37 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 -4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.51 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.40 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 28.5% 20.7% 20.3% 14.0% 20.1% 16.1% 11.9% Logistic: 4.1% 14.3% 6.7% 4.0% 0.2% 3.9% 1.7% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 14.6% 9.2% 8.1% 4.7% 8.0% 5.9% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/26/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##