* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/26/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 49 52 55 61 65 68 64 57 49 40 33 34 34 33 32 V (KT) LAND 45 46 49 52 55 61 65 68 64 57 49 40 33 34 34 33 32 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 47 48 51 53 51 47 39 31 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 3 4 4 9 14 14 20 13 19 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 6 4 3 2 0 3 8 18 12 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 50 39 125 134 125 178 188 205 220 214 199 209 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.2 27.9 28.1 27.4 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 147 148 145 142 144 136 130 128 126 127 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 62 66 66 65 68 66 65 61 48 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 19 20 20 21 22 24 22 20 16 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -2 3 9 13 2 9 9 15 29 53 56 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 29 39 33 51 8 65 84 47 44 29 29 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -1 0 -1 -4 -2 0 7 8 4 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 970 1052 1137 1176 1205 1216 1169 1076 982 875 805 760 724 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.8 14.8 16.0 16.9 17.7 18.0 18.1 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.3 112.3 113.3 114.2 115.1 116.4 117.1 117.2 116.9 116.3 115.7 115.2 114.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 12 10 9 13 7 3 2 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 5. -1. -7. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 20. 23. 19. 12. 4. -5. -12. -11. -11. -12. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.1 111.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/26/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.69 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.90 7.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.38 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 -4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.52 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 24.9% 24.6% 20.1% 14.1% 20.0% 18.3% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 30.2% 16.3% 9.9% 0.8% 8.7% 3.0% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.2% 19.0% 13.8% 10.0% 5.0% 9.6% 7.1% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/26/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##