* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/24/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 38 39 42 48 53 54 54 55 55 55 53 52 49 47 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 38 39 42 48 53 54 54 55 55 55 53 52 49 47 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 37 36 36 37 39 40 39 38 37 35 32 28 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 2 5 3 3 6 6 7 9 10 14 16 19 22 24 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 1 5 5 1 0 0 -1 -1 1 1 0 0 1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 288 265 204 183 209 135 156 186 224 200 201 199 201 223 222 216 211 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.5 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 155 155 152 151 149 137 139 143 143 140 136 130 127 125 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 56 56 53 55 56 62 64 70 70 75 71 69 61 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -7 1 8 3 4 11 8 16 2 9 1 9 -2 5 22 53 200 MB DIV 12 16 33 50 55 26 26 -6 -17 6 48 35 17 16 20 31 13 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -2 -3 0 -2 0 3 1 1 0 1 3 4 2 0 LAND (KM) 429 490 554 623 684 861 1059 1191 1287 1366 1405 1422 1388 1317 1266 1224 1183 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.3 14.2 13.8 13.4 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.5 14.2 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.7 106.6 107.6 108.5 110.6 112.7 114.8 116.5 117.8 118.9 119.9 120.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 31 34 27 22 21 17 12 13 4 6 10 12 11 9 5 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 23. 24. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 8. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. 15. 13. 12. 9. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.7 104.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/24/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 11.2% 8.8% 3.8% 0.6% 3.3% 1.0% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.8% 2.9% 1.3% 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/24/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##