* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/23/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 51 53 55 61 67 73 79 80 81 79 79 75 68 60 52 V (KT) LAND 55 52 51 53 55 61 67 73 79 80 81 79 79 75 68 60 52 V (KT) LGEM 55 52 50 49 48 49 53 60 68 75 81 83 81 75 62 50 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 13 9 4 1 5 8 6 13 11 13 12 17 23 27 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 2 0 0 7 -1 -2 -1 -4 -5 -2 2 8 7 5 2 SHEAR DIR 226 250 270 262 226 31 131 124 105 115 154 155 161 159 186 197 234 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.3 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 158 161 160 156 153 150 151 153 150 145 139 135 131 124 111 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.9 -52.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 59 58 58 54 51 47 48 50 52 55 52 47 35 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 15 17 19 20 21 21 22 23 23 19 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -12 -19 -14 -8 16 22 39 43 52 55 48 46 34 23 34 40 200 MB DIV 19 35 16 25 33 45 24 50 10 56 1 28 23 31 5 -21 -9 700-850 TADV 5 2 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 3 3 0 LAND (KM) 268 300 336 380 428 555 669 807 960 1061 1098 1108 1075 995 917 849 785 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.4 15.2 15.1 15.0 14.7 14.5 14.3 14.1 14.1 14.5 15.2 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.4 104.0 104.7 105.4 107.0 108.7 110.4 112.1 113.9 115.5 116.7 117.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 21 27 32 25 23 22 15 15 18 17 10 6 6 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 14. 15. 14. 15. 13. 8. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -2. -0. 6. 12. 18. 24. 25. 26. 24. 24. 20. 13. 5. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.5 102.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/23/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.69 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.46 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 267.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.58 -4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.52 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.77 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.15 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 21.9% 21.2% 16.8% 11.7% 18.7% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 7.8% 7.3% 5.7% 3.9% 6.5% 5.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/23/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##