* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132013 10/22/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 50 49 44 38 32 28 24 22 20 19 21 23 25 25 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 50 49 44 38 32 28 24 22 20 19 21 23 25 25 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 51 51 51 46 40 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 21 24 32 35 29 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 4 1 0 1 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 300 282 309 326 337 358 9 12 324 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 26.8 26.4 25.5 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 123 123 123 120 117 108 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 105 104 104 104 102 99 93 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.8 -55.9 -56.1 -55.8 -55.3 -54.9 -54.4 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 45 43 42 40 36 38 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 12 11 10 8 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -82 -76 -69 -86 -98 -117 -162 -160 -165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 15 -26 -51 -17 -43 -35 -16 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 9 4 9 11 7 15 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1830 1897 1899 1894 1890 1853 1794 1729 1687 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.4 31.2 32.2 33.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.4 51.6 50.9 50.3 49.7 48.6 47.3 45.8 44.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 6 6 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 6 6 4 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 4. -1. -7. -13. -17. -21. -23. -25. -26. -24. -22. -20. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 29.4 52.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132013 LORENZO 10/22/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.21 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.72 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.79 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 362.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.51 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.31 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.36 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 14.5% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.8% 10.1% 9.1% 1.6% 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 8.2% 6.3% 0.5% 0.1% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132013 LORENZO 10/22/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132013 LORENZO 10/22/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 50 50 49 44 38 32 28 24 22 20 19 21 23 25 25 18HR AGO 45 44 46 46 45 40 34 28 24 20 18 16 15 17 19 21 21 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 35 29 23 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT