* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/22/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 93 91 89 83 82 85 87 90 91 93 92 93 91 88 82 V (KT) LAND 100 96 93 91 89 83 82 85 87 90 91 93 92 93 91 88 82 V (KT) LGEM 100 95 92 88 86 81 78 75 72 72 73 73 71 70 68 64 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 12 14 13 16 13 11 10 11 10 8 4 5 12 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 2 4 9 SHEAR DIR 202 218 204 205 212 256 256 223 197 198 195 239 209 178 180 186 191 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 153 154 157 159 160 157 154 150 148 146 145 143 138 131 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 59 59 61 62 60 56 56 53 56 54 57 57 62 64 65 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 11 10 12 16 19 19 21 23 25 25 27 28 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR 39 30 20 21 19 5 -9 -5 15 9 20 16 20 16 17 14 11 200 MB DIV 74 65 82 81 74 72 37 55 14 43 49 11 22 24 13 24 11 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 -2 0 0 4 0 1 0 0 1 4 8 LAND (KM) 134 136 137 151 165 211 256 322 418 511 614 740 819 822 795 731 698 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.1 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.0 101.9 102.0 102.2 102.9 104.0 105.2 106.6 107.9 109.3 110.8 112.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 0 2 3 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 5 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 18 17 17 20 24 23 23 25 18 14 12 10 6 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -8. -13. -17. -21. -23. -25. -25. -25. -25. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. 1. 4. 9. 10. 14. 15. 17. 16. 17. 16. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -11. -17. -18. -15. -13. -10. -9. -7. -8. -7. -9. -12. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.5 102.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/22/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.22 1.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.23 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.60 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 492.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.31 -1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.86 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.16 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 17.0% 15.9% 12.1% 9.8% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.9% 1.3% 0.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 6.4% 5.8% 4.3% 3.6% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/22/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##