* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/21/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 112 109 105 102 94 84 79 79 81 84 84 82 83 82 82 80 V (KT) LAND 110 112 109 105 102 94 84 79 79 81 84 84 82 83 82 82 80 V (KT) LGEM 110 112 109 106 102 96 89 84 82 83 85 85 80 76 74 72 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 14 10 9 12 12 11 6 7 7 8 4 9 9 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -5 -1 0 1 0 -1 0 3 1 3 1 0 -4 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 159 167 192 196 184 201 247 250 224 181 173 224 205 173 166 180 189 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.5 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 155 155 157 159 161 164 159 154 149 147 148 149 150 146 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 57 56 57 53 53 50 48 47 47 50 54 57 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 11 9 10 9 9 10 13 14 17 19 18 20 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 36 42 41 28 17 21 10 0 11 43 31 25 21 18 24 25 29 200 MB DIV 62 75 47 29 46 57 43 41 42 26 14 -11 -8 -5 -1 20 35 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 -2 3 0 3 2 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 165 160 156 155 153 175 192 247 331 453 548 661 779 857 905 964 1042 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.1 15.9 15.6 15.5 15.5 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.3 102.5 103.1 104.0 105.2 106.7 108.2 109.7 111.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 0 1 1 1 2 4 5 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 23 28 25 26 29 19 15 15 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -12. -19. -24. -28. -31. -33. -33. -33. -33. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -3. 1. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -3. -1. 3. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. -1. -5. -8. -16. -25. -31. -31. -29. -26. -26. -28. -27. -28. -28. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 16.3 102.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/21/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.14 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.38 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.47 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 549.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.24 -1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.75 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 22.2% 17.6% 13.7% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 5.0% 5.7% 3.7% 7.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.8% 11.8% 3.2% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.4% 13.0% 8.8% 6.5% 6.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/21/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##