* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/21/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 90 97 101 102 98 92 82 76 70 71 71 73 74 75 76 75 V (KT) LAND 80 90 97 101 102 98 92 82 76 70 71 71 73 74 75 76 75 V (KT) LGEM 80 92 101 104 105 102 98 94 89 84 83 85 87 89 88 84 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 14 15 13 14 13 12 10 4 9 8 7 10 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -5 -5 -3 -3 0 -1 -2 3 -1 -1 1 -2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 186 198 183 166 181 185 187 235 246 260 190 176 162 181 178 186 180 SST (C) 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.3 30.1 29.6 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 166 166 166 166 167 168 166 165 160 153 150 149 148 146 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.3 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 11 8 10 7 10 7 10 8 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 65 65 60 59 57 57 55 53 51 50 48 45 45 44 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 14 11 12 10 11 10 11 12 14 16 17 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 23 36 42 43 52 44 35 34 31 27 29 35 44 45 44 48 46 200 MB DIV 71 66 73 76 76 27 58 34 21 25 23 -1 19 -21 -20 -36 -31 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 1 0 3 -2 2 0 2 4 2 1 LAND (KM) 192 169 146 128 110 92 90 133 159 223 319 428 523 624 759 853 947 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.4 16.1 15.9 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.9 101.9 101.9 101.9 101.9 101.9 102.0 102.4 103.1 104.1 105.3 106.8 108.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 2 2 1 1 1 3 4 5 7 7 7 7 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 27 28 28 28 26 26 26 28 32 27 26 27 21 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 8. 12. 13. 12. 9. 5. 2. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -3. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 17. 21. 22. 18. 12. 2. -4. -10. -9. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.8 101.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/21/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.53 10.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.92 18.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.29 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.59 9.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 310.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.53 -7.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 9.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.87 9.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.26 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.51 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 83% is 13.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 5.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 83.3% 63.9% 61.4% 60.0% 42.7% 41.0% 16.4% 0.0% Logistic: 60.2% 47.0% 48.0% 42.9% 59.9% 19.6% 8.7% 0.8% Bayesian: 33.6% 40.4% 26.1% 20.1% 4.6% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 59.0% 50.4% 45.2% 41.0% 35.7% 20.9% 8.4% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/21/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##